How the Jobs Report Affects Inflation & Interest Rates

The July 2023 jobs report, specifically the non-farm payroll (NFP) data was weaker than expected. The US economy added 187,000 new jobs in July, which is less than the 200,000 forecasted and the unemployment rate came in at 3.5%. The decrease in the jobs report is good news. Now I know that sounds crazy, but let me explain.

The FOMC is the branch of the Federal Reserve responsible for setting the monetary policy in the United States. One of the primary objectives of the FOMC is to achieve maximum sustainable employment while maintaining price stability (keeping inflation in check).

Here’s how the jobs report can influence the FOMC’s interest rate decisions:

Employment Situation: The jobs report, particularly the non-farm payroll data, provides crucial information about the health of the labor market. If the report shows strong jobs creation, low unemployment rates, and overall improvement in employment conditions, it indicates a robust economy. In such cases, the FOMC might consider raising interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating and to curb potential inflationary pressures.

Inflation Concerns: The FOMC closely monitors the relationship between employment and inflation. A tight labor market (low unemployment) can lead to higher wage growth, which can, in turn, drive up consumer spending and demand. If the FOMC believes that strong employment conditions might lead to an increase in inflation above their target rate (2%), they might raise interest rates as a measure to cool down economic activity and control inflation.

Economic Growth: The jobs report also provides insights into the overall economic growth and the pace of recovery. Weak jobs growth or rising unemployment rates may indicate economic challenges or a slowdown. In such situations, the FOMC may consider lowering interest rates to stimulate borrowing, spending, and investment, which can support economic growth.

Forward Guidance: The jobs report is just one of many economic indicators the FOMC considers when making interest rate decisions. However, it can influence the committee’s forward guidance. The FOMC may use the jobs report as evidence to communicate its stance on future interest rate changes to the public and the markets.

It’s essential to note that the FOMC considers a wide range of economic indicators and data points when setting interest rates, not just the jobs report. Other factors include inflation data, GDP growth, consumer spending, business investment, and global economic conditions. The FOMC’s decision-making process is complex and considers various economic data to determine the appropriate interest rate policy that aligns with its dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability.